Hagfræðideild háskólans þarf að taka fyrir markaðslögmál hóruhúsa

En ekki er skynsamlegt að láta starfandi hórur sjá um kennsluna. Það er vegna þess að hórur hafa ákveðinn líftíma, og í hefðbundnum hóruhúsum verður smám saman ómögulegt að ljúga kúnna inn á þær en öðru máli gegnir með opinber pólitísk hóruhús þar setja hórurnar bara lög sem skylda þig til að borga með þeim og því meira sem þær verða vonlausari. Enginn hefur áhuga á að hjakka á einhverju útjöskuðu hórudrasli og enginn hefur áhuga á að vera skattlagður sérstaklega sem refsing fyrir að hjakka ekki á draslinu. Hórur eru yfirleitt reknar af hórudólgum og þegar hóruhús eru tekin til rannsóknar af hóruhúsinu sjálfu þá má sjálfsagt búast við að hórurnar reyni frekar en hitt að bera blak af eigendum sínum.

Vandræði opinberlega uppvís í vonlausu hóruhúsi

Það var hægt orðið fyrir árum síðan að keyra Payloader um afturendann á nánast gjörvöllu hóruhúsi fjórskipta einflokksins og hef ég farið yfir það ad ennui síðustu árin. Þetta eru nú ekki beinlínis rakettuvísindi. Á venjulegum markaði verður hóra því minna virði sem lengur er hjakkað á henni. En í hóruræðinu í Sikiley norðursins ertu bara neyddur til að borga fyrir drætti sem þú myndir aldrei hafa lyst á og það er vegna þess að 1) hórurnar eru kostaðar með lögum sem þær setja sjálfar af skattpeningum þínum og 2) ruslveituhórur í eigu fjármagnsafla sjá að öðru leyti um að pranga þessu hórudrasli inn á þig. Þegar það er orðið algjörlega óseljanlegt er það sett í að fíflast í tilgangslausum sendiráðum eða sett í seðlabankann. Allt miðast þetta að því að valda hámarksskaða fyrir almenning en hámarkságóða fyrir fjárhagslega eigendur þessa auðvirðilega hórudrasls.

Wikileaks leaked video of Civilians killed in Baghdad - Full video

Maddömurnar sleppa en einhverjar smáhórur verða hugsanlega dæmdar

Skuggastjórnendur ekki sóttir til saka

Engin ákvæði eru til í lögum sem taka á hugsanlegri refsiábyrgð skuggastjórnenda bankanna.

Þorbjörn Þórðarson skrifar:

Rannsóknir sérstaks saksóknara hafa leitt í ljós að hér á Íslandi var lítil sem engin fjarlægð mynduð við eigendur hlutafélaga, ólíkt því sem tíðkaðist erlendis. Hér á landi voru eigendur miklu stærri þátttakendur í stjórnun bankanna. Þeir munu að öllum líkindum sleppa, þar sem refsiábyrgðin var hjá stjórn og forstjóra.

Engin ákvæði eru til í lögum sem taka á hugsanlegri refsiábyrgð skuggastjórnenda bankanna. Hugtakið skuggastjórnandi hefur verið notað sem lýsing því þegar stærsti hluthafi í hlutafélagi, eða fulltrúi hans, hefur áhrif á eða í reynd segir stjórnanda hvernig ákvarðanataka eigi að fara fram í viðkomandi hlutafélagi. Annað gildir um hugsanlega skaðabótaábyrgð.

Sennilega hefur þetta aldrei birst skýrar fyrir opnum tjöldum en þegar eigendur stórra banka funduðu með ráðamönnum í aðdraganda bankahrunsins. Komið hefur fram að Björgólfur Thor Björgólfsson réð ferðinni í ráðherrabústaðnum helgina fyrir setningu neyðarlaganna. Lýsing á þessu hefur birst m.a í bókum vegna hruninu. Þessa helgi var Björgólfur sjálfur mjög sýnilegur á fundum í stjórnarráðinu og var myndaður með bankastjórunum, Halldóri J. Kristjánssyni og Sigurjóni Þ. Árnasyni.

Samkvæmt heimildum fréttastofu hafa rannsóknir sérstaks saksóknara leitt í ljós að lítil sem engin fjarlægð virðist hafa verið milli stjórnenda hlutafélaga og eigendanna, í mörgum þeirra félaga sem hafa verið til rannsóknar hjá embættinu. Taka skal þó skýrt fram að hér er ekki verið að vísa sérstaklega til Björgólfs Thors, enda var það nefnt til skýringar hér framar.

Samkvæmt heimildum fréttastofu birtist þetta skýrlega þegar skoðuð eru samskipti starfsmanna Milestone-samstæðunnar við sænska tryggingafélagið Moderna. Svo virðist sem stjórnendur þess hafi verið mjög sjálfstæðir í sínum störfum en engir fjármunir virðast hafa runnið frá Svíþjóð til Íslands að undanskildum arðgreiðslum. Stjórnendur Moderna munu hafa litið svo á að eigendur gætu greitt sér arð en hefðu ekki heimildir til að skipta sér af daglegum rekstri. Ólíkt því sem gilti um Sjóvá, sem var í eigu Milestone, en þar virðist forstjóranum hafa verið sagt hvað hann ætti að gera hverju sinni.

Engin ákvæði eru til í lögum sem gera eigendur hlutafélaga ábyrga fyrir refsiverðri háttsemi vegna ákvarðana sem voru teknar af forstjórum eða stjórn, þótt þau hafi í reynd verið að fylgja fyrirmælum. Með öðrum orðum má segja að eigendurnir sleppi vegna ákvarðana sem teknar voru af þeim í reynd, þar sem refsiábyrgð vegna þessara ákvarðana liggur annars staðar, eða hjá forstjóra og stjórn.

http://visir.is/article/20100322/VIDSKIPTI06/38947469

IMF warns wealthiest nations about their debt

BEIJING (AP) -- The International Monetary Fund warned the world's wealthiest nations Sunday to watch their surging levels of government debt, saying it could drag down the growth needed to ensure continued economic recovery.

The economic crisis is leaving "deep scars in fiscal balances, particularly in the advanced economies," John Lipsky, the IMF's No 2. official, told the China Development Forum in Beijing. He said that countries that have been going into debt to stimulate their economies should now prepare for belt-tightening steps next year.

"Policymakers should be making it clear to their citizens why a return to prudent policies is a necessary condition for sustained economic health," said Lipsky, who is the fund's deputy managing director, according to remarks prepared for the conference.

The IMF projects that gross general government debt in the G-7 advanced economies, except Germany and Canada, will rise from an average of about 75 percent of GDP at the end of 2007 to about 110 percent of GDP at end of 2014, Lipsky said.

This year, the average debt-to-GDP ratio in the wealthiest countries is projected to reach levels that prevailed in 1950 in the aftermath of World War II, Lipsky said. The ballooning of government debt also comes amid rising health and pension spending, he said.

"Addressing this fiscal challenge is a key near-term priority, as concerns about fiscal sustainability could undermine confidence in the economic recovery," Lipsky said, adding that in the medium term, large public debt could lead to higher interest rates and slower growth.

Countries should aggressively pursue reforms that will boost growth, such as the liberalization of goods and labor markets and the elimination of tax distortions, he said, though such moves on their own will be insufficient without direct measures to reduce spending.

They should also strengthen fiscal institutions in ways that could include improving tax collection and reinforcing fiscal responsibility legislation, while pursuing entitlement reforms, such as increasing the retirement age, to help in restoring finances, he said.

For the United States, Lipsky said a higher public savings rate will be required to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability.

"An increase in public saving would augment an expected rise in household saving to boost national saving and reduce the current account deficit," he said.

America's national debt -- now $12.5 trillion -- has been growing by leaps and bounds over the past decade, to the point where it threatens to swamp overall economic output. Roughly half of it is owned by global investors, with China holding the largest stake.

Japan's debt is proportionately even bigger -- about twice its GDP -- but the impact is cushioned by the fact that most is held by Japanese households.

In Europe and Japan, where there is already a high tax burden on labor, Lipsky said measures should focus on improving the targeting of social benefits and on reducing exemptions on indirect taxes.

On Sunday March 21, 2010, 2:05 pm EDT

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/IMF-warns-wealthiest-nations-apf-3447875395.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

Percentage of GDP to External Debt: Default is Inevitable

A country's external debt is defined as the part of the total debt of a country owed to foreign creditors.  These creditors may include other banks, governments, corporations, and private individuals.

No one is exactly sure how these debts are collateralized.  There is a lot of fine print in ultra small fonts within the billions of pages of these contracts.  Some believe that it is based upon the country's ability to tax its citizens and the good faith of the government to make good on its debts, but it's always more than that.  Argentina learned the hard way when their economy collapsed and foreigners came in to scoop up their resources.  In the United States, external federal debt has been collateralized with our national lands, though the vast majority of the population is unaware of this.

Recently I saw a list of the percentage of external debt to GDP on the CNBC website.  Sadly, it is in a slide show presentation and a lot of people have missed these important numbers, so I am reproducing the figures here as listed on the CNBC site.

1. Ireland - 1,267%

External debt (as % of GDP): 1,267%
External debt per capita: $567,805

Gross external debt: $2.386 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $188.4 billion

 

2. Switzerland - 422.7%

External debt (as % of GDP): 422.7%
External debt per capita: $176,045

Gross external debt: $1.338 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $316.7 billion

 

3. United Kingdom - 408.3%

External debt (as % of GDP): 408.3%
External debt per capita: $148,702

Gross external debt: $9.087 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $2.226 trillion

 

4. Netherlands - 365%

External debt (as % of GDP): 365%
External debt per capita: $146,703

Gross external debt: $2.452 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $672 billion

 

5. Belgium - 320.2%

External debt (as % of GDP): 320.2%
External debt per capita: $119,681

Gross external debt: $1.246 trillion (2009 Q1)
2008 GDP (est): $389 billion

 

6. Denmark - 298%

External debt (as % of GDP): 298.3%
External debt per capita: $110,422

Gross external debt: $607.38 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $203.6 billion

 

7. Austria - 252.6%

External debt (as % of GDP): 252.6%
External debt per capita: $101,387

Gross external debt: $832.42 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $329.5 billion

 

8. France - 236%

External debt (as % of GDP): 236%
External debt per capita: $78,387

Gross external debt: $5.021 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $2.128 trillion

 

9. Portugal - 214.4%

External debt (as % of GDP): 214.4%
External debt per capita: $47,348

Gross external debt: $507 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $236.5 billion

 

10. Hong Kong - 205.8%

External debt (as % of GDP): 205.8%
External debt per capita: $89,457

Gross external debt: $631.13 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $306.6 billion

 

11. Norway - 199%

External debt (as % of GDP): 199%
External debt per capita: $117,604

Gross external debt: $548.1 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $275.4 billion

 

12. Sweden - 194.3%

External debt (as % of GDP): 194.3%
External debt per capita: $73,854

Gross external debt: $669.1 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $344.3 billion

 

13. Finland - 188.5%

External debt (as % of GDP): 188.5%
External debt per capita: $69,491

Gross external debt: $364.85 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $193.5 billion

 

14. Germany - 178.5%

External debt (as % of GDP): 178.5%
External debt per capita: $63,263

Gross external debt: $5.208 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $2.918 trillion

 

15. Spain - 171%

External debt (as % of GDP): 171.7%
External debt per capita: $59,457

Gross external debt: $2.409 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $1.403 trillion

 

16. Greece - 161.%

External debt (as % of GDP): 161.1%
External debt per capita: $51,483

Gross external debt: $552.8 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $343 billion

 

17. Italy - 126.7%

External debt (as % of GDP): 126.7%
External debt per capita: $39,741

Gross external debt: $2.310 trillion (2009 Q1)
2008 GDP (est): $ 1.823 trillion

 

18. Australia - 111.3%

External debt (as % of GDP): 111.3%
External debt per capita: $41,916

Gross external debt: $891.26 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $800.2 billion

 

19. Hungary - 105.7%

External debt (as % of GDP): 105.7%
External debt per capita: $20,990

Gross external debt: $207.92 billion (2009 Q1)
2008 GDP (est): $196.6 billion

 

20. United States - 94.3 %

External debt (as % of GDP): 94.3%
External debt per capita: $43,793

Gross external debt: $13.454 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $14.26 trillion

 

And these are just the top twenty.  Switzerland came as a big surprise to me.

 

So what does this mean?  According to the World Bank and the IMF, external debt sustainability (the ability of a country to repay foreign debts) should not be more than 250 percent of a country's revenue or 150 percent of exports.  Higher external debt is harmful to the economy and most likely will result in default.

Somewhere lost in all this is the fact that Irish citizens must kick back half a million dollars to foreign bondholders in addition to any domestic obligations.  Do you really think that the average Irish citizen is going to spend the next thirty years slaving away to pay back these debts to foreigners?  Of course not.

While the US is still sustainable according to IMF and World Bank projections (if you only look at external debt and not the rest of the mess), do you really believe that every man, woman and child in the US will kick in another $45,000 per person?  Since this is a per capita figure and does not include exceptions for children, the disabled, retirees, unemployed, and those living in poverty, the real number the average taxpayer will be expected to cough up is closer to six figures. That's just external debt.  There's a lot more debt out there.

As more countries turn on the printing presses, who will buy this debt?  It doesn't look like a good deal to me.  I cannot imagine China and Russia would buy more paper without some sort of collateral.  Since the US has mortgaged half the country, I am not sure what's left to give.

Never before have we seen such debt spread across the globe.  It would make sense for all countries to renounce their debt and start over, but that isn't in the plans for the globalists.  Exactly when TSWHTF is an unknown, but when it does, it will be economic chaos beyond our imaginations.  And it the collapse will happen relatively quickly and spread like falling dominos.  Look at the Soviet Union.

That Bush and Obama have already violated the Posse Comitatus Act without even a peep from Congress is a good indicator that when the US economy collapses, Obama will use military members as a police force.  It's not a surprise that the US government has wiped out the National Guard, keeping guardsmen in Iraq and Afghanistan.  There is a reason for this.  The federal government is afraid of the states rebelling.

I have been thinking a lot about California and secession.  This scenario makes more sense for California than just about any other state.  California is (or was) the world's ninth largest economy.  Why should California continue to kick in more federal money than it receives AND continuing to collect state taxes to fund federal mandates?  What happens if California secedes?  All that collateral promised by the US government is now property of Californians.  Would the federal government come in and physically prevent California from reclaiming its resources?  Who would do this?  The California National Guard is beholden to the governor and the state of California.  In terms of military strategy, keeping National Guardsmen out of the US and in Iraq and Afghanistan (surge, anyone?) makes more sense, as the beleaguered governors would have no local support - only federal troops.  This is the easiest way for the federal government to maintain control over states and national resources pledged as collateral to foreign debtholders. 

Is it merely coincidence that the National Guard has been called into combat while hundreds of thousands (maybe a million?) serving in the US military - paid and voluntary positions - are sitting around doing busywork at various military installations around the world and that virtually every state has seen the strength of its National Guard severely undermined or wiped out because of casualties incurred in Iraq and Afghanistan?

And what about Russia and China?  These countries have paid off their debts and have cash reserves.  What happens when twenty of the largest debtor nations refuse to pay up?  Does anyone think that they will just allow themselves to be relegated to second world status while all of the so-called capitalist economies default on their debts?  Does anyone not think that Vladimir Putin, former head of the KGB, won't do something drastic?  Imagine how insulted he must feel, having his country defeated economically, politically and socially by the Cold War, listening to Dubbya refer to him as "Pooty poot"  (and Karl Rove was called "Turd Blossom"), and having to suffer through hypocritical U.S. propaganda about capitalism and free markets while the Fed is a private institution and the PPT has been manipulating markets for a few decades and the political rewards system is no different in the US than under the USSR.

Global revolution is inevitable.

UPDATE:  

From The Huffington Post:    

Excerpt:

Iceland, Latvia and Greece are all in a position to call the bluff of the IMF and EU. In an October 1 article called "Latvia - the Insanity Continues," Marshall Auerback maintained that Latvia's debt problem could be fixed over a weekend, by a list of measures including (1) not answering the phone when foreign creditors call the government; (2) declaring the banks insolvent, converting their external debt to equity, and having them reopen with full deposit insurance guaranteed in local currency; and (3) offering "a local currency minimum wage job that includes healthcare to anyone willing and able to work as was done in Argentina after the Kirchner regime repudiated the IMF's toxic package of debt repayment."

Evans-Pritchard suggested a similar remedy for Greece, which he said could break out of its death loop by following the lead of Argentina. It could "restore its currency, devalue, pass a law switching internal euro debt into [the local currency], and 'restructure' foreign contracts."

The Road Less Traveled: Saying No to the IMF

 

Standing up to the IMF is not a well-worn path, but Argentina forged the trail. In the face of dire predictions that the economy would collapse without foreign credit, in 2001 it defied its creditors and simply walked away from its debts. By the fall of 2004, three years after a record default on a debt of more than $100 billion, the country was well on the road to recovery; and it achieved this feat without foreign help. The economy grew by 8 percent for 2 consecutive years. Exports increased, the currency was stable, investors were returning, and unemployment had eased. "This is a remarkable historical event, one that challenges 25 years of failed policies," said economist Mark Weisbrot in a 2004 interview quoted in The New York Times. "While other countries are just limping along, Argentina is experiencing very healthy growth with no sign that it is unsustainable, and they've done it without having to make any concessions to get foreign capital inflows."

http://www.picassodreams.com/picasso_dreams/2009/12/percentage-of-gdp-to-external-debt-default-is-inevitable.html

Við þurfum þjóðlega stefnu

Við þurfum alls ekki áróður frá einhverju leppadrasli í eigu erlendra aðila.  Við höfum farið alvarlega flatt á á þvi áður. Þetta drasl sveik okkur í stríðsrekstur á upplognum forsendum og núna vill það svíkja auðlindir okkar til húsbænda sinna. Það skiptir ekki öllu máli hvaða armar fjórskipta einflokksins, sem eru sviknir inn á okkur í gervikosningum, ljúga inn á okkur skímum erlendra eigenda þeirra, það er allt í þágu útlendinga en ekki okkar.  Og því erum við í okkar núverandi stöðu. Við verðum að snúa þessu við og móta stöðu sem er þjóðleg og miðast við okkar eigin hagsmuni. Og hrista af okkur þetta eilífa kvislingadrasl fjórskipta einflokksins. Hórudrifið pólitískt kerfi hefur enga framtíð, það eru engar sérstakar hugsjónir, engin sérstök stefna utan að láta hjakka á sér meðan einhver endist til þess.

Við erum í draumastöðu

Við þurfum bara að vera vel á verði og láta ekki leppadót í eigu útlendinga glutra þessarri stöðu. Góðu heilli er almenningur farinn að skilja þetta.

Við höfum allt til að bera til að geta verið með sterkan efnahag og sterkan gjaldmiðil. Við höfum næga orku, miklu meira en við þurfum af vatni, við höfum nóg af matvælum til lands og sjávar og getum auðveldlega verið sjálf okkar nóg að því leyti og við höfum náttúru og umhverfi sem laðar að sér túrista. Þetta eru fjórar helstu undirstöður okkar efnahagslífs að mínu mati og þær eru geysi mikilvægar og raunar það sem gjaldþrota efnahagskerfi Bretlands, Hollands og annarra stórra basketkeisa  evrópusambandsins sárlega vantar. Sem skýrir maníska ákefð evrópska leppadótsins hér að innlima okkur í  bú húsbændanna með sem mestum afslættum.

En við þurfum bara að halda sjó og draga lappirnar og tefja og bíða eftir að stærri dæmi fari á hausinn. Þegar það óumflýjanlega ferli er komið í gang þá spekúlerar enginn í okkur.

Helstu komandi gjaldþrot í Evrópu á næstu misserum:

Írland, erlendar skuldir sem hlutfall af vergri þjóðarframleiðslu, 1200%

Sviss, 400%

Bretland, 400%

Holland, 360%

Belgía, 320%

Danmörk, 300%

Austurríki, 250%

Ég læt þetta nægja að bili. 

Hóruhús bankanna: sama vonlausa draslið að rembast þar og fyrir hrun

Það sést glögglega á dæmalausu kynningarmyndbandi sem lak úr sækókynningardeild Landsbankans og var gert nýlega. Þetta fór á Youtube en sækóar bankans fengu það fljótt fjarlægt þaðan. Núna er hægt að nálgast myndbandið á amk. tveimur ísl. torrentsíðum en þar sem þetta fór í umferð fyrir aðeins nokkrum dögum hef ég ekki orðið var við það nema á um tug evrópskra torrentsíðna. En það stendur áreiðanlega til bóta.

En annars má sjá þetta sækóvændisrugl úr sækóbankanum hér núna:

http://www.kvikmynd.is/myndband.asp?id=9462

Hóruhús fjórskipta einflokksins

Ég hef nú mörgum sinnum farið yfir þann undarlega rekstur hér á blogginu og furðað mig á því hvers vegna almenningur hefur verið þvingaður til þess með skattfé sínu að halda uppi algjörlega vonlausum hórum frá hægri og vinstri sem eiga það sameiginlegt að vera stýrt af pimpum erlendis frá. Nú; hóra hefur skv. skilgreiningu ákveðinn endingartíma og ætti ekki að þurfa að fara nákvæmlega út í það - en okkar pólitísku hórur hafa hækkað í tign innan hóruhúss fjórskipta einflokksins þrátt fyrir að fyrir löngu hafi verið hægt að keyra Hummer um afturendann á þeim. Samt glamrar þetta hórudót alltaf um markað og eftirspurn en aldrei um pimpana sem kosta það sjálft.