Orkufyrirtækin eru algjörlega gjaldþrota, rétt eins og ríkið sjálft

Heildarskuldir LV og OR eru yfir 500 milljarðar. Erlend staða ríkissjóðs var neikvæð um 500 milljarða áður en hann tók yfir gjaldþrota banka ásamt þúsunda milljarða skuldum þeirra. Trúlega þarf að minnsta kosti 2000 milljarða EFNAHAGSAÐSTOÐ EKKI LÁN til að reisa þetta fallít batterí við, en ekki er ljóst hverjir ættu að reiða það fram. Góðar stundir.

Icelandic Bank Bonds Are Cheaper Than Enron, Parmalat

Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Bonds of Iceland's three biggest banks are on sale for 3 cents on the dollar, less than the debt of Enron Corp. and Parmalat Finanziaria SpA after they failed.

Icelandic regulators have transferred mostly domestic assets and liabilities of Landsbanki Islands hf and Glitnir Banki hf to new government-owned entities, leaving the shells of the failed institutions. Kaupthing Bank hf, the largest bank, has also been seized by the government and is in receivership. Bonds of the banks have plunged, according to KNG Securities LLP, on concern investors may recoup almost nothing.

``This isn't a normal, orderly bankruptcy so you have to assume the worst,'' said Simon Adamson, an analyst at debt research firm CreditSights Inc. in London. ``They're selling off the overseas subsidiaries as quickly as possible at fire sale prices, rather than looking to preserve value for bondholders. It's all unpredictable and heavily politicized.''

Iceland's government seized the banks when they couldn't finance debt of about $61 billion. The banks borrowed to fund local investors' purchases of assets including stakes in Saks Fifth Avenue in New York and London-based jeweler Mappin & Webb, while the lenders snapped up financial firms abroad.

Glitnir and Kaupthing have failed to make bond payments and will be in default after grace periods expire. Reykjavik-based Kaupthing missed a coupon payment on a samurai bond scheduled for today, the first European lender to default in the Japanese bond market, according to investors.

Landsbanki, the second-largest lender in the country, has a 1.4 billion-yen ($13.7 million) note that comes due on Oct. 31 as part of a total $11.4 billion of bonds.

Parmalat, Enron

Bonds of Parmalat were valued at about 10 cents on the dollar after the Italian dairy company collapsed amid fraud at the end of 2003 in what was then Europe's biggest bankruptcy.

Enron's bonds could be obtained for as little as 10 cents on the dollar after the world's largest energy trader in 2001 asked for protection from creditors in what was then the biggest-ever such filing, involving $63.4 billion of assets.

``Recovery depends on fire sales of foreign assets,'' Bill Blain, a broker at KNG Securities in London, wrote in a note to investors where he stated the price. This ``so far, has been done with appalling ineptitude,'' he wrote.

Under the reorganization plan, the old banks and their foreign units have been left to fend for themselves. The new entities have no obligation to bondholders of the institutions they are replacing, according to the Web site of the Icelandic Financial Supervisory Authority.

Glitnir, Iceland's no. 3 bank, has about $19.4 billion of bonds outstanding, and Kaupthing's total is $27.6 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Rights and obligations attached to derivatives contracts also stay with the old banks, according to a note by Ivanka Stefanova, an analyst at UniCredit SpA in Munich.

``We do not expect a favorable outcome for bondholders,'' she wrote in the note.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=at3t08YzNH0g

Enginn treystir ríkisstjórn og Seðlabanka til að tryggja endurgreiðslu lána

Það er ólíklegt að nýir leiðtogar sem væru valdir af handahófi í símaskrá gætu valdið jafnmiklum efnahagslegum glundroða og núverandi stjórnvöld. Þetta segir Robert Z. Aliber, prófessor emeritus við háskólann í Chicago, í aðsendri grein í Morgunblaðinu.

Hann segir að ríkisstjórn Íslands og Seðlabanki séu engu hæfari sem stjórnendur nútíma hagkerfis en þau væru sem stjarnvísindamenn. Þau skildu ekki að uppsveifla íslenska hagkerfisins árin 2005 - 2006 byggðist á skuldasöfnun - lán hafi verið tekin til þess að standa í skilum með önnur lán - og nú viti þau ekki hvernig unnt sé að ná jafnvægi aftur eftir að pappírsauðurinn er horfinn.

Aliber segir að ríkisstjórnin og Seðlabankinn virðist ekki skilja af hverju Bandaríkin og önnur lönd hiki við að lána þeim peninga. Ástæðan sé sú að enginn treysti þeim til þess að grípa til þeirra ráðstafana sem nauðsynlegar séu til þess að unnt verði að endurgreiða slík lán.

Þá segir Aliber að það ætti að spyrja bankastjorn Seðlabanka Íslands af hverju bankinn hafði ekki heimil á vexti bankanna og skuldsetningu fyrirtækja og einstaklinga. Jafnframt segir Aliber að ríkisstjórn Íslands ætti að grípa til ráðstafana til þess að breyta skuldsetningu fyrirtækja og heimila þannig að hún samsvari greiðslugetu þeirra.

Vísir, 20. okt. 2008 09:52

http://visir.is/article/20081020/VIDSKIPTI06/28177443/-1

Mikilvægt að hafa strangt eftirlit með makki bandar. leppa við IMF

Better safe than sorry, á sem fyrr við í því sambandi. Sagan hefur sýnt hvað eftir annað að bandar. húsbændum hefur nægt að blístra og þá hleypur þetta leppadót út um allt tún án nokkurrar gagnrýninnar hugsunar. Sé litið af þeim augnablik afhenda þeir án efa húsbændum sínum auðlindir landsins á silfurfati. You have been warned. Góðar stundir.

Weak Chinese Demand Outlook For Aluminium

FN Arena News - October 17 2008

By Chris Shaw

Along with its base metal partners, aluminium prices have slid in recent weeks, Standard Chartered putting the reasons down as investor de-leveraging, concerns about underlying demand and a stronger US dollar.

The price of the metal has dropped more than 30% from its record highs in July as the markets continues to trade in very volatile fashion but eventually things will settle down and when this occurs Standard Chartered expects the market will focus on underlying demand fundamentals.

The problem here is the outlook is not so good, the group pointing out demand in China, the world's largest producer, is falling thanks to tighter credit policy and weaker end product demand from key industries such as construction and transport.

Changes in taxes are also impacting, leading the group to suggest demand by fabricators for aluminium for export will also fall in coming months. At the same time production levels remain high, the result being the Chinese market is moving into a significant surplus.

As producers deal with this surplus domestic prices are being cut, to the extent prices in the Chinese market are now factoring in significant discounts compared to prices on the London Metals Exchange (LME). At present Standard Chartered notes the discount is in the order of US$500 per tonne, which is material given prices for the September quarter were around US$2,800 per tonne.

This weak domestic demand in China will continue and has seen the group cut its expectations for Chinese primary aluminium consumption growth to 14% year-on-year in 2008, down from 23% perviously and well below the 38% growth recorded in 2007.

This lower demand is expected to continue to weigh on LME prices and Standard Chartered has adjusted its numbers accordingly, its forecasts now calling for a December quarter average price of US$2,300 per tonne and a 2008 average of US$2,727 per tonne. Into 2009 prices should ease further with the group forecasting a March quarter average price of US$2,200 per tonne before a modest recovery to an average of US$2,300 per tonne in the June quarter. 

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=0889EBA1-1871-E587-E1FBF2949976D0FB

Global systemic crisis Alert - Summer 2009: The US government defaults on its debt

In this 28th edition of the GEAB, LEAP/E2020 has decided to launch a new global systemic crisis alert. Indeed our researchers anticipate that, before next summer 2009, the US government will default and be prevented to pay back its creditors (holders of US Treasury Bonds, of Fanny May and Freddy Mac shares, etc.). Of course such a bankruptcy will provoke some very negative outcome for all USD-denominated asset holders. According to our team, the period that will then begin should be conducive to the setting up of a « new Dollar » to remedy the problem of default and of induced massive capital drain from the US. The process will result from the following five factors studied in detail further in this GEAB:

• The recent upward trend of the US Dollar is a direct and temporary consequence of the collapse of stock markets

• Thanks to its recent « political baptism », the Euro becomes a credible « safe haven » value and therefore provides a « crisis » alternative to the US dollar

• The US public debt is now swelling uncontrollably

• The ongoing collapse of US real economy prevents from finding an alternative solution to the country's defaulting

• « Strong inflation or hyper-inflation in the US in 2009? », that is the only question.

Studying the case of Iceland can give an idea of the upcoming stages of the crisis. That is what our team has been doing ever since the beginning of 2006. This country indeed provides a good illustration of what the US and the UK should be expecting. It can be considered – and that is what most Icelandic people do today – that the collapse of Iceland's financial system came from the fact that it was disproportionate to the size of the country's economy.

Inflation in Iceland - 2003-2008 - Source Central Bank of Iceland

Financially speaking, Iceland thought of itself as UK (1), in the same way as, financially speaking, UK thought of itself as the US and the US thought of themselves as the entire world. It is therefore quite useful to study the case of Iceland (2) in order to understand the course of events that London and Washington will follow in the next 12 months (3).

What we see today is a double historical phenomenon:

. on the one hand, since September 2008 (as anticipated in the February 2008 edition of the GEAB - N°22), the whole planet has become aware that a global systemic crisis is unfolding, characterised by the collapse of the US financial system and its contagion to the rest of the world.

. on the other hand, a growing number of global players are beginning to act on their own, in reaction to the ineffectiveness of the measures advocated or implemented by the US though they are the centre of this global financial system. What happened with this first Euroland (or Eurozone summit which took place on Sunday, October 12, 2008, and whose decisions, by their scope (close to 1,700-billion EUR) and their nature (4), resulted in a regain of confidence on financial markets from all over the world, is typical of the « post-September 2008 world ».

Map of deposit insurances in the EU - Source AFP - 10/09/2008

Indeed there is such a thing as a « post-September 2008 world ». According to our team, it is now clear that this past month will remain in the history books of the whole planet as the month when the global systemic crisis started; even if what is really at play is its decanting phase, the last of a series of four phases of the crisis described by LEAP/E2020 as early as June 2006 (5). As always when it comes to large human groups, the perception of change among the general public only occurs when change is already far on its way.

As a matter of fact, September 2008 is the month when the « financial detonator » of the global systemic crisis exploded. According to LEAP/E2020 indeed, this second semester 2008 is the time when « the world dives into the heart of the impact phase of the global systemic crisis » (6); which means for our researchers that, at the end of this semester, the world enters the « decanting phase » of the crisis, i.e. a phase when the outcome of the shock settles down. This phase is the longest (from 3 to 10 years, according to the country) and the one affecting the largest number of people and countries. It is also the phase when the components of new global equilibriums will start to appear, two of them being already described by LEAP/E2020 in this 28th edition of the GEAB in the graphic illustrations below (7).

Therefore, as we repeated it on and on since 2006, this crisis is far more important, in terms of impact and outcome, than the 1929 crisis. Historically, we are the very first players, witnesses and/or victims of a crisis affecting the whole planet, in a situation of unprecedented interdependence of countries (resulting from twenty years of globalisation) and people (the level of urbanization - and related dependence for all the basic needs – water, food, energy… - is also unprecedented). However, the 1929 experience and all its dreadful outcome, is still vivid enough in our collective memories to hope, if citizens are vigilant and leaders clear-sighted, that we will be spared from a « remake » leading to major conflagration(s).

Europe, Russia, China, Japan,... are certainly the collective players who can make sure that the unfolding implosion of today’s world power, i.e. the United States, does not drive the planet into a disaster. Indeed, except for Gorbachev’s USSR, empires have a tendency to strive in vain to reverse the course of History when they realize their might is escaping them. It then belongs to partner-powers to channel the process peacefully, as well as it belongs to the citizens and rulers of the concerned country to be clear-sighted and face the difficult times they are about to cross.

Total borrowings of US Depository Institutions from the US Federal Reserve (01/08/1986 – 10/09/2008) - Source Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

The « emergency repair » of international financial channels, achieved by the countries of the Eurozone at the beginning of this month of October 2008 (8), should not hide three fundamental facts:

• The “repair” was necessary to curb the panic that threatened to squander the entire global financial system in just a few weeks, but what it heals temporarily is merely a symptom. It has just bought a bit of time, two to three months maximum, as the global recession and the collapse of the US economy (the table above shows the staggering increase of US banks’ borrowings from the Fed) will speed up and create new tensions in the economic, social and political fields, that must be anticipated and coped with as soon as next month (as soon as the “financial packages” have been implemented)

• The huge financial means allocated worldwide for « emergency rescues » of the global financial system, though they were necessary to put back in order the system of credit, are lost for the real economy when it is on the verge of facing a global recession

• The « emergency repair » results in further marginalization, and therefore weakening, for the United States, because it sets up processes that are contrary to those advocated by Washington for the allocation of the Hank Paulson’s and Ben Bernanke’s 700-billion USD TARP: bank recapitalisation by governments (a decision Hank Paulson has now come to follow) and interbank loan guarantees (in fact Euroland governments substitute to credit insurers, a mostly American industry at the centre of global finance since decades). These trends turn more and more decision-making relays and financial flows away from the United-States when because of the explosion of their public (9) and private debt they need them more than ever; not to mention pensions going up in smoke (10).

The last aspect shows how, in the coming months, solutions to the crisis and to its various sequences (financial, economic, social and political) will increasingly diverge: what is good for the rest of the world will not be good for the United States (11), and now, Euroland in the first place, the rest of the world seems determined to make its own choices.

The sudden shock that will result from the US defaulting in summer 2009 is partly due to this decoupling of decision-making processes of the world’s largest economies with regard to the US. It is predictable and can be dampened if global players start to anticipate it. As a matter of fact, it is one of the topics developed in this 28th edition of the GEAB: LEAP/E2020 hopes that the September shock has “educated” the world’s political, economic and financial policy-makers and made them understand that it is easier to act by anticipation than in a panic. It would be a pity if Euroland, Asia and oil-producing countries, as well as US citizens of course, discover one morning of summer 2009 that, after a long-week-end or bank-holiday in the US, their US T-Bonds and Dollars are only worth 10 percent of their value because a « new Dollar » has just been imposed (12).

---------
Notes:

(1) Iceland adopted 10 years ago all the principles of economic deregulation and « financieration » advocated and implemented in the US and UK. Reykjavik thus became some sort of a financial « Mini-Me » of London and Washington, in reference to the very Americano-British movie character Austin Powers. The three countries undertook to play the financial game of « the frog that wished to be as big as the ox », in reference to a fable by Jean de la Fontaine with a very unhappy end for the frog.

(2) Icelandic stocks collapsed 76 percent after a few days suspension designed to « avoid » a panic! Source: MarketWatch, 10/14/2008

(3) On this subject, let's spend a few lines on the amount of the “financial package” announced by London, i.e. 640-billion EUR including 64-billion EUR to recapitalize banks and a further 320-billion EUR pay back those same banks’ debt (source: Financial Times, 10/09/2008). With an economy in freefall to the image of the real-estate market, with a soaring inflation, with capital-based pensions going up in smoke and a currency at the lowest,… apart from increasing the public debt and weakening even more the Sterling pound, it is difficult to imagine how the plan can « rescue » British banks. Contrary to Eurozone banks, the British financial system, exactly like its US counterpart, is at the centre of the crisis, not a collateral victim. Gordon Brown may well compare himself to Churchill and Roosevelt together (Source: Telegraph, 10/14/2008), in his ignorance of History, he seems to forget that neither Churchill nor Roosevelt had already spent 10 years in their country's governments when each of them had to cope with their « big crisis » (that goes for the US and the Bush administration – Paulson and Bernanke included - who all come from the problem and are certainly not part of the solution). Not to mention the fact that Churchill and Roosevelt organised summits such as Yalta or Tehran leaving the French and the Germans waiting at the door, while today it is him who waits at the door of the Euroland summit.

(4) Source: L'Express, 10/13/2008

(5) Source: GEAB N°5, May 15, 2006

(6) Source: GEAB N°26, June 15, 2008

(7) LEAP/E2020 made a synthesis of its anticipations on the decanting phase of the crisis by means of a world map of the impact of the crisis based on the identification of 6 large groups of countries; and of an anticipatory schedule of the 4 financial, economic, social and political sequences over 2008-2013 for each of these regions.

(8) It is indeed the Eurozone which curbed the spiral of global panic. For weeks, the US and British initiatives followed one another without any effect. The eruption of a new collective player, the « Euroland summit », and the wide-ranging decisions it made, are a new and soothing phenomenon. It is for this very reason that Washington and London have systematically prevented such a summit from taking place ever since the Euro was launched, 6 years ago. A complete set of diplomatic gesticulation was required (preliminary meeting, pre-summit group photo,…) to make the British Prime Minister believe he was not set aside the process, when in fact there is no reason why he should take part in a Euroland Summit. In this edition of the GEAB, LEAP/E202020 comes back on the phenomenon and the long-term systemic consequences of this 1st Euroland Summit.

(9) The US financial rescue plan has already increased by 17,000 USD the debt owned by each US citizen. Source: CommodityOnline, 10/06/2008

(10) It is indeed 2,000-billion USD of capital-based pensions which evaporated in the past few weeks in the US. Source: USAToday, 10/08/2008

(11) At least in the short-term. Indeed our team is convinced that it is not bad at all for the American people in the medium- and long-term if the system currently prevailing in Washington and New-York is fundamentally reappraised. This system has thrust the country into dramatic problems among which dozens of millions of US citizens now struggle, as illustrated in this article by the New York Times dated 10/11/2008.

(12) Even if it will be a minor-scale measure compared to the prospect of a US bankruptcy, those who think that it is time to invest again on financial markets may find useful to learn that the New York Stock Exchange has recently reviewed all its circuit-breaker thresholds as a result of ratings collapse. Source : NYSE/Euronext, 09/30/2008

Jeudi 16 Octobre 2008

In the same category:

Global systemic crisis – End of 2008: Pension funds go off the rails - 06/10/2008

The decisive six months to avoid a global recession: Five strategic advices for central banks, governments and other regulatory authorities - 30/09/2008

LEAP/2020: Global systemic crisis September 2008 - Special announcement - 24/09/2008

SEQUENCE 6 - 'Very Great Depression' in the US, social unrest and army's growing influence on public affairs (2nd quarter 2007 – 4th quarter 2009) - 24/08/2008

Traffic Info LEAP/E2020 - May 2008 - 12/05/2008

Special offer! Each new subscriber gets Special Edition 'GEAB/SUBPRIME CRISIS: Causes, development, consequences and strategic advice'... because an in-depth understanding is required to secure oneself - 12/08/2007

GEAB Archives Offer (1) - Six archive issues of your choice for 50 euros - 22/01/2007

French prospectivist, Pierre Gonod, analyses LEAP's work of anticipation - 30/08/2006

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-28-is-available!-Global-systemic-crisis-Alert-Summer-2009-The-US-government-defaults-on-its-debt_a2250.html

Fimmtudagur, 17. 10. 08.

Þegar ég vaknaði í morgun varð ég strax var við óvenjulega hugsun, að ég væri hálfviti. Skv. viðbragðsáætlun sendi ég strax tölvupóst til Pentagon og kom í ljós að bilun hafði orðið í inngræddum tölvukubb og þegar ég hafði öpplódað uppfærslu varð ég jafn kýrskýr sem fyrr. Það er annars ekki mikið af mínum afrekum að segja í dag nema ég hef haldið nokkra fyrirlestra að venju og búið til nokkur powerpointsjó. Amen.

Mér finnst eðlilegt að jafnvel greindarskert fólk velti fyrir sér hvernig það geti gerst að menn á reynslulausn geti staðið í stórframleiðslu á fíkniefnum

En þar sem um meðfæddan greindarskort er að ræða hjá þessum aðilum mun ég aldrei búast við því að þessir hálfvitar skilji að það er óðs manns æði að hleypa hálfvitum og klikkhausum í yfirstjórn dómsmála þjóðarinnar.  Það eru orsakir og afleiðingar en sennilega hefur ekki þótt taka því í skólakerfinu að eyða tíma í slíkt á suma. 

 

 

Fimmtudagur, 16. 10. 08.

Mig dreymdi að ég væri að tala við guð og hann sagði við mig sko þegar ég sagði þér að ráða sanntrúaða menn í yfirstjórn löggunnar og fangelsismála þá tók ég sérstaklega fram að þeir ættu að toppa þig að greindarvísitölu um amk. 30 stig og vera því yfir 100. Djísös, hvernig geturðu klúðrað svona elementarí hlutum. Klukkan tíu hélt ég svo fyrirlestur í Lögreglufélaginu um skipulag yfirstjórnar lögreglu og hvernig stuðla beri að því að tíu yfirmenn séu um hvern almennan lögreglumann. Þetta var helsta afrek mitt í dag en kannski mætti nefna að ég hitti amk. þrjá í dag sem eru vitlausari en ég sjálfur sem er óvænt uppörvun.

Vandinn með hálfvita og klikkhausa sem komast til mannaforráða hjá ríkinu er að þeir raða strumpum í stíl við sig sjálfa í embætti

Ég skil engan veginn hvernig á að vera hægt að reka heila amfetamínverksmiðju í viku að því gefnu að lögreglan fullnægi amk. lágmarkskröfum. Þetta er nanóþjóðfélag og lögregla með púls á að geta fattað einföldustu hluti ekki síst ef góðkunningjar hennar eiga í hlut. En lögreglumenn þurfa náttúrlega að fara úr húsi og það gengur ekki að um sé að ræða einhvers konar atvinnuleysisgeymslu fyrir kontórista þar sem einhverjar risaeðlur eru með gerviyfirmannastöður.

Kannski er ríkisapparatið eða amk. yfirstjórn þess ein allsherjar atvinnuleysisgeymsla þar sem þarf að skera fituna miskunnarlaust af toppnum og reyna að nýta það sem er stopp á framabrautinni undir einhverju dóti, sem stjórnmálamenn  í förgunarúrræðum hafa troðið þar inn. Það er allavega eitthvað mikið að víða. Fjármálaráðherrann er nautheimskur og dómsmálaráðherrann er teiknimyndafígúra og forsætisráðherrann gæti troðið upp með einlínunga með þokkalegri hárkollu og varalit en vart sé ég mikið merkilegri verkefni fyrir hann. Ekki að undra að allt sé komið á bullandi hausinn undir stjórn þessarra vitleysinga.