The five stages of collapse

Ég var í vetur að benda á afburðablogg Dmitry Orlov og aldrei verður góð vísa of oft kveðin þannig að rétt er að ítreka þetta.

Þetta er beisíkalli kjarni boðskapar hans:

Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future is no longer assumed to resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.

Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost. As local social institutions, be they charities, community leaders, or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum, run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity ” (Turnbull, The Mountain People). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes “May you die today so that I die tomorrow” (Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago). There may even be some cannibalism.

Helsta og mikilvægasta hlutverk spámanna hefur alltaf verið að vara við yfirvofandi kollsteypum og hörmungum og ógöngum. Við spám þeirra ber því sem fyrr að bregðast með aðgerðum sem á endanum afsanna spádómana. Vonandi virkar það núna á síðari stig yfirstandandi hruns. En merkin sem hann bendir á blasa við og eru satt að segja ansi óþægileg og núna alls ekki lengur hægt að ljúga sig frá þeim. Hversu langt fram gengið er þetta ferli? Verður þróuninni yfirleitt snúið við úr þessu? Aðeins tíminn getur leitt það í ljós.

Athugasemdir

[Baldur Fjölnisson, 5.11.2008 kl. 19:58]

Já, hann er á http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/