BIS segir hættu á heimskreppu vegna óheftrar skuldaframleiðslu

BIS (The Bank for International Settlements, eins konar yfirseðlabanki heimsins) segir hættu á fjármálakreppu hanga yfir.

"Virtually nobody foresaw the Great Depression of the 1930s, or the crises which affected Japan and southeast Asia in the early and late 1990s. In fact, each downturn was preceded by a period of non-inflationary growth exuberant enough to lead many commentators to suggest that a 'new era' had arrived"

segja þeir

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"Behind each set of concerns lurks the common factor of highly accommodating financial conditions. Tail events affecting the global economy might at some point have much higher costs than is commonly supposed,"

"The Chinese economy seems to be demonstrating very similar, disquieting symptoms," BIS says, citing ballooning credit, an asset boom, and "massive investments" in heavy industry.

"The dollar clearly remains vulnerable to a sudden loss of private sector confidence,"

"Mortgage credit has become more available and on easier terms to borrowers almost everywhere. Only in recent months has the downside become more apparent,"

"Sooner or later the credit cycle will turn and default rates will begin to rise,"

"The levels of leverage employed in private equity transactions have raised questions about their longer-term sustainability. The strategy depends on the availability of cheap funding,"

Þeir hafa sem sagt takmarkaða trú lengur á peningamálastefnu vesturlanda, sem byggist aðallega á því að blása upp eignabólur með stjórnlausri peningaframleiðslu (skuldaframleiðslu) og vonast síðan til að geta lent þeim  mjúklega. Hins vegar yfirskjóta markaðir alltaf og leita líka alltaf leiðréttingar fyrr eða síðar.