Report: Iran will use oil as weapon if attacked. Military chief warns of controls on route where two-fifths of oil is shipped

MSNBC News Services

updated 12:39 p.m. ET June 28, 2008

TEHRAN, Iran - The head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards said the country would impose controls on shipping in the vital Gulf oil route if Iran was attacked, a newspaper reported on Saturday.

Fear of an escalation in the standoff between the West and Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, have been one factor propping up sky-high oil prices. Crude hit a record level on international markets near $143 a barrel on Friday.

Speculation about a possible attack on Iran because of its disputed nuclear ambitions has risen since a report this month said Israel had practiced such a strike, prompting increasingly tough talk of retaliation, if pushed, from Tehran.

A picture released by Mehr news agency shows a fighter from Iran's Revolutionary Guards flying over an oil tanker in mid-2006 in the Gulf Sea, a vital route for oil shipments.

"Naturally every country under attack by an enemy uses all its capacity and opportunities to confront the enemy," Guards commander-in-chief Mohammad Ali Jafari told Jam-e Jam newspaper in some of the toughest language Iran has used so far.

'Impose control'
"Regarding the main route for exiting energy, Iran will definitely act to impose control on the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz," he said of the Gulf waterway through which about two-fifths of all globally traded oil passes.

Video

  Iran to hit oil supply if attacked
  June 28: The commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard says that if his country is attacked, they will attempt to gain control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

MSNBC

Iranian officials have in the past sent mixed signals about whether Iran would use oil as a weapon. But such threats when made have sent jitters through the crude market for fear of disrupting supplies from big OPEC producers in the Gulf.

Jafari also warned that Tehran would launch missiles at Israel if attacked.

The Islamic Republic insists its nuclear program is peaceful and aimed at generating electricity. But the West and Israel fear Iran is seeking to build atomic bombs. Israel is believed to be the only Middle East state with nuclear arms.

Military action not ruled out by U.S.
Washington has said it wants diplomacy to end the nuclear row but has not ruled out military action should that fail.

"If there is a confrontation between us and the enemy from outside the region, definitely the scope (of the confrontation) will reach the oil issue," Jafari said.

"After this action (of Iran imposing controls on the Gulf waterway), the oil price will rise very considerably and this is among the factors deterring the enemies," he said.

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Jafari warned neighbors not to let their territory be used.

"If the attack takes place from the soil of another country ... the country attacked has the right to respond to the enemy's military action from where the operation started," he said.

Kuwait, the launchpad for the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, and Iraq itself, where U.S. troops are now stationed, have both said they would not let their land be used for a strike on Iran. The U.S. military has bases in other Gulf states and Afghanistan.

Jafari said U.S. forces were "more vulnerable than Israelis" because of its troops in the region.

Iran's top authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has in the past said Iran would target U.S. interests if the country came under attack.

"Iran can in different ways harm American interests even far away," the Guards commander said.

'Fatal blows'
Jafari suggested Iran's allies in the region, who include Lebanon's Shiite militia Hezbollah, could also retaliate. He referred to Iran's ties with those living in Lebanon's Shiite heartland of south Lebanon but did not refer to any group.

"Israelis know if they take military action against Iran ... the abilities of the Islamic and Shiite world, especially in the region, will deliver fatal blows," Jafari said, adding that Israel was in range of Iranian missiles.

The Revolutionary Guards are the ideological wing of Iran's military with air, sea and land capabilities and a separate command structure to regular units.

Jafari said Iran's long coastline along the Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Sea of Oman meant those attacking Iran or backing such an operation "will be harmed".

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25424938/ 

Michael Reagan's solution for the Middle East - How sick can those RW Kooks be?

Hugsanleg innherjasvik Landsbankans í rannsókn

Stöð 2, 27. jún. 2008 12:38

Ekki kunnugt um að fjármálafyrirtæki hafi brugðist trausti stjórnvalda

MYND/Stöð 2

Geir H. Haarde forsætisráðherra segir að ríkisstjórnin hafi verið í ágætu samstarfi við samtök fjármálafyrirtækja og honum er ekki kunnugt um að menn hafi brugðist trausti í hennar garð. Þetta sagði hann þegar hann var spurður út í meint innherjasvik Landsbankans.

Kauphöll Íslands rannsakar nú viðskipti Landsbankans með húsbréf daginn sem ríkisstjórnin kynnti aðgerðir sínar á fasteignamarkaði. Grunur leikur á að bankinn hafi vitað um aðgerðirnar áður en þær voru kynntar opinberlega og nýtt sér vitneskjuna til þess að hagnast.

Kauphöllinni hafa borist formlegar og óformlegar kvartanir vegna viðskipta Landsbankans með íbúðabréf, sama dag og ríkisstjórnin tilkynnti um breytingar á sjóðnum. Þetta staðefsti Þórður Friðjónsson, forstjóri Kauphallarinnar, í samtali við fréttastofu Stöðvar 2 í morgun. Málið er nú í rannsókn en margt bendir til þess að Landsbankinn hafi haft vitneskju um aðgerðir ríkisstjórnarinnar áður en þær voru kynntar opinberlega.

Viðskipti bankans með íbúaðbréf margfölduðust rétt fyrir lokun markaðar eða tæpri klukkustund áður en ríkistsjórnin tilkynnti um aðgerðirnar á blaðamannafundi.

Ekki liggur fyrir hvernig upplýsingar um aðgerðirnar láku út til bankans en í fréttum Ríkissjónvarpsins í gær kom fram að til væri tölvupóstur þar sem Halldór J. Kristjánsson, bankastjóri Landsbankans, segist vita um aðgerðirnar 20 mínútum fyrir lokun gjaldeyrismarkaðar.

Geir H. Haarde, forsætisráðherra, vildi lítið tjá sig um málið í morgun þegar hann var spurður hvað gæti skýrt þennan leka. „Við höfum verið í ágætu samstarfi við Samtök fjármálafyrirtækja og mér er ekki kunnugt um að það hafi menn brugðist trausti í okkar garð," sagði Geir í morgun.

Ekki liggur fyrir hvenær rannsókn Kauphallarinnar lýkur en að sögn Þórðar Friðjónssonar verður lögð áhersla á að ljúka rannsókn málsins sem fyrst.

Líklegt að hlutabréfamarkaðurinn falli um amk. 10% á næstu dögum

Dow drubbing: Sinks to 21-month low

12:37pm:  The blue-chip index tumbled as much as 241 points as selling accelerated following Goldman Sachs downgrades of General Motors and Citibank. more

Citi shares tumble on downgrade

Downgrade sends GM shares into reverse

 

-----------------------------------------------------

 

Markaðir í BNA og Evrópu eru að hrynja hratt og margir stærstu bankar heimsins og fjármálafyrirtæki virðast hreinlega vera að gufa upp, kikna undan geðveikislegri skuldapappíraframleiðslu sinni og hrikalegri eigin skuldsetningu sem því hefur fylgt. Þetta mun óhjákvæmilega hafa mikil áhrif hér áfram. Fjármálakerfi heimsins hangir allt saman og er nátengt og alþjóðavæðingin svokallaða tryggir að kerfið allt fer sameiginlega á hausinn. Það er enginn einangraður.

 

Markaðurinn hérna er við þriggja ára botn og næsta support hans er í kringum 4000, það er level sem hann var á nokkuð lengi árið 2005 og einnig var 4000 mikilvægur toppur frá haustinu 2004 (eftir hækkun úr 1500 sumarið 2003). Þess vegna nefni ég þessa 10% lækkun, markaðurinn mun án efa testa það support. Haldi það ekki þarf sjálfsagt að fara að ræða 3000-3500 og væntanleg gjaldþrot banka og að ríkissjóður fari í erlenda gjörgæslu. Hér er greinilega enginn við stjórn eins og hver maður sér og ástand krónu og hlutabréfa eftir því. Maður sér það ekki skána í bráð. Heimska er alveg ólæknandi og heilaskemmdir líka. Góðar stundir.

Vísitala neysluverðs i júní birt á morgun. Opinbera verðbólgan núna er amk. 30%.

Ég reikna með að neysluverðsvísitalan hækki um 2% milli mánaða og verðbólgan síðustu 3 mánuði verði þá um 35% á ársgrundvelli og um 25% á ársgrundvelli miðað við síðustu 6 mánuði.

WikiLeaks: How to train death squads and quash revolutions from San Salvador to Iraq

How to covertly train paramilitaries, censor the press, ban unions, employ terrorists, conduct warrantless searches, suspend habeas corpus, conceal breaches of the Geneva Convention and make the population love it

JULIAN ASSANGE / Wikileaks.org | June 23, 2008

Wikileaks has released a sensitive 219 page US military counterinsurgency manual. The manual, Foreign Internal Defense Tactics Techniques and Procedures for Special Forces (1994, 2004), may be critically described as "what we learned about running death squads and propping up corrupt government in Latin America and how to apply it to other places". Its contents are both history defining for Latin America and, given the continued role of US Special Forces in the suppression of insurgencies, including in Iraq and Afghanistan, history making.

The leaked manual, which has been verified with military sources, is the official US Special Forces doctrine for Foreign Internal Defense or FID.

FID operations are designed to prop up "friendly" governments facing popular revolution or guerilla insurgency. FID interventions are often covert or quasi-covert due to the unpopular nature of the governments being supported ("In formulating a realistic policy for the use of advisors, the commander must carefully gauge the psychological climate of the HN [Host Nation] and the United States.")

The manual directly advocates training paramilitaries, pervasive surveillance, censorship, press control and restrictions on labor unions & political parties. It directly advocates warrantless searches, detainment without charge and (under varying circumstances) the suspension of habeas corpus. It directly advocates employing terrorists or prosecuting individuals for terrorism who are not terrorists, running false flag operations and concealing human rights abuses from journalists. And it repeatedly advocates the use of subterfuge and "psychological operations" (propaganda) to make these and other "population & resource control" measures more palatable.

The content has been particularly informed by the long United States involvement in El Salvador.

In 2005 a number of credible media reports suggested the Pentagon was intensely debating "the Salvador option" for Iraq.[1]. According to the New York Times Magazine:

The template for Iraq today is not Vietnam, with which it has often been compared, but El Salvador, where a right-wing government backed by the United States fought a leftist insurgency in a 12-year war beginning in 1980. The cost was high — more than 70,000 people were killed, most of them civilians, in a country with a population of just six million. Most of the killing and torturing was done by the army and the right-wing death squads affiliated with it. According to an Amnesty International report in 2001, violations committed by the army and associated groups included ‘‘extrajudicial executions, other unlawful killings, ‘disappearances’ and torture. . . . Whole villages were targeted by the armed forces and their inhabitants massacred.’’ As part of President Reagan’s policy of supporting anti-Communist forces, hundreds of millions of dollars in United States aid was funneled to the Salvadoran Army, and a team of 55 Special Forces advisers, led for several years by Jim Steele, trained front-line battalions that were accused of significant human rights abuses.

The same article states James Steele and many other former Central American Special Forces "military advisors" have now been appointed at a high level to Iraq.

In 1993 a United Nations truth commission on El Salvador, which examined 22,000 atrocities that occurred during the twelve-year civil war, attributed 85 percent of the abuses to the US-backed El Salvador military and its paramilitary death squads.

It is worth noting what the US Ambassador to El Salvador, Robert E. White (now the president for the Center for International Policy) had to say as early as 1980, in State Department documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act:

The major, immediate threat to the existence of this government is the right-wing violence. In the city of San Salvador, the hired thugs of the extreme right, some of them well-trained Cuban and Nicaraguan terrorists, kill moderate left leaders and blow up government buildings. In the countryside, elements of the security forces torture and kill the campesinos, shoot up their houses and burn their crops. At least two hundred refugees from the countryside arrive daily in the capital city. This campaign of terror is radicalizing the rural areas just as surely as Somoza’s National Guard did in Nicaragua. Unfortunately, the command structure of the army and the security forces either tolerates or encourages this activity. These senior officers believe or pretend to believe that they are eliminating the guerillas.[2]

Selected extracts follow. Note that the manual is 219 pages long and contains substantial material throughout. These extracts should merely be considered representative. Emphasis has been added for further selectivity. The full manual can be found at US Special Forces counterinsurgency manual FM 31-20-3.

MORE INFO ON DOCUMENT AT WIKILEAKS

2 Billion May Suffer from Cell Phone Cancer by 2020

ANI/Business Wire India
June 22, 2008

The fatal and volumetric effects of electromagnetic radiation is emitted mainly by mobile phones, mobile phone antenna, tower, mast, transmission tower, microwave oven, wireless devices, system and equipment.

NEW DELHI: The studies and survey conducted by Australian Health Research Institute indicates that due to billions of times more in volume electromagnetic radiation emitted by billions of mobile phones, internet, intranet and wireless communication data transmission will make almost one-third of world population (about two billions) patient of ear, eye and brain cancer beside other major body disorders like heart ailments, impotency, migraine, epilepsy.

According to the reports the tissues of children are tender and are likely to be more effected by use of any wireless gadget and devices and they should not be encouraged to use mobile phone.

The fatal and volumetric effects of electromagnetic radiation emitted mainly by mobile phones, mobile phone antenna, tower, mast, transmission tower, microwave oven, wireless devices, system and equipment.

These dangerous effects have been certified and confirmed repeatedly by many leading medical and scientific research institutions of the world including Ministries of health of various governments, W.H.O. and now have been admitted and confirmed by Govt. of India in their recent press releases.

The attached image shows and proves about the serious ill effects of E.M. radiation released by Radiation Nuclear and Safety Authority of FINLAND as to how E.M. radiation emitted by mobile phones damages the various body cells and causes incurable and fatal diseases.

Jamm og himininn er blár og grasið grænt og sólin kemur upp í fyrramálið.

Vísir, 23. jún. 2008 10:54

Segir Seðlabankann eitt af helstu efnahagsvandamálunum

Guðmundur Ólafsson hagfræðingur segir að eitt af helstu efnahagsvandmálum þjóðarinnar í dag sé að Seðlabanki Íslands þverskallist við að fylgja eftir stefnu ríkisstjórnarinnar. Dæmi um það sé sú töf sem orðin er á margumræddri lántöku ríkissjóðs til að styrkja gjaldeyrisforða Seðlabankans.

„Mér skilst að Seðlabankinn taki ekki þetta lán af því að Davíð Oddson seðlabankastjóri sé á móti því," segir Guðmundur í samtali við Vísi. „Einn angi af þessu er svo að löngu er orðið tímabært að skipta út seðlabankastjóranum og bankaráði Seðlabankans. Margsinnis hefur verið bent á að þessir menn eru óhæfir um að gegna stöðum sínum. Þorvaldur Gylfason prófessor hefur meðal annarra bent á þetta."

Guðmundur segir að hann viti til þess að almennir starfsmenn Seðlabankans búi við mikla óvissu í störfum sínum. „Það er einkum vegna þess að yfirstjórn bankans ræðir ekkert við þá um þau verkefni sem séu í gangi eða framundan og engir fundir eru haldnir þarna innanbúðar um stefnumótunina," segir Guðmundur. „Þessu er þveröfugt farið til dæmis hjá Seðlabanka Noregs þar sem mikil og náin samvinna er milli yfir- og undirmanna bankans um verkefni hans og stefnumótun."

Fram kemur í máli Guðmundur að ríkisstjórnin sé meðal annars að gera góða hluti í efnahagsmálum til að bregðast við vandanum. Nefnir hann þar sem dæmi aðgerðirnar í kringum Íbúðalánasjóð í síðustu viku. "Þetta voru bráðnauðsynlegar aðgerðir til að komast hjá algjöru frosti í fasteignaviðskiptum hérlendis," segir Guðmundur. „Að vísu eru hámarkslánin enn heldur lág. Þau fóru úr því að duga fyrir bílskúrnum og í að duga fyrir bílskúr með opnara. Það var því heldur varlega af stað farið en samt ástæða til að fagna þessum breytingum."

Guðmundur segir athyglisvert að nú sé ESA (Eftirlitsstofnun EFTA, innskot blm.) ekki neitt vandamál lengur. Ríkisstjórnin sé hætt að tönglast á því að ESA banni Íbúðalánasjóð. „Væntalega bannar ESA mönnum ekki heldur að keyra á þjóðvegum af því þar ríki ekki samkeppni," segir Guðmundur.

Guðmundur nefnir hinsvegar að ríkisstjórnin muni ekki ná tilætluðum árangri í efnahagsmálaaðgerðum sínum meðan að Seðlabankinn fylgi ekki þeirri stefnu sem ríkisstjórnin markar.

BNA: Háttsettur síkópat segir að ráðist verði á Íran eftir kosningarnar í haust

Bolton: Israel Will Attack Iran After U.S. Election But Before Inauguration, Arab States Will Be ‘Delighted’»

This morning on Fox News, former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton continued his drumbeat for war against Iran. Adopting Bill Kristol’s argument, Bolton suggested that an attack on Iran depends on who Americans elect as the next President:

I think if they [Israel] are to do anything, the most likely period is after our elections and before the inauguration of the next President. I don’t think they will do anything before our election because they don’t want to affect it. And they’d have to make a judgment whether to go during the remainder of President Bush’s term in office or wait for his successor.

Bolton gamed out the fallout from an attack on Iran. He claimed that Iran’s options to retaliate after being attacked are actually “less broad than people think.” He suggested that Iran would not want to escalate a conflict because 1) it still needs to export oil, 2) it would worry about “an even greater response” from Israel, 3) and it would worry about the U.S.’s response.

Bolton then concluded that Arab states would be excited if the U.S. or Israel attacked Iran:

I don’t think you’d hear the Arab states say this publicly, but they would be delighted if the United States or Israel destroyed the Iranian nuclear weapons capability.

Bolton has said he is backing John McCain because he would handle the Iranian nuclear program in a “stronger” way than the Bush administration.

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/06/22/bolton-arabs-delighted/

Lánsfjárkreppan er rétt að byrja

Hedge Fund Managers in Monaco Say Credit Crisis to Worsen

By Tom Cahill

June 20 (Bloomberg) -- The credit market contagion that led to record losses at some of the world's largest financial institutions may be far from over, according to hedge fund managers gathered in Monaco this week.

``These times will get worse before they get better,'' said Christophe Aurand, head of European operations for York Capital Management LLC, a $13 billion fund manager preparing to invest in distressed debt. He spoke at the GAIM International conference, Europe's largest annual hedge fund gathering.

More than 80 percent of the fund managers, investors and hedge fund service providers at the event said they expect the credit crisis will continue, a survey found. Almost a quarter said they expect the situation ``will deteriorate significantly.''

Banks worldwide have reported $397 billion of writedowns since the start of the U.S. subprime crisis last year. John Paulson, the founder of $33 billion hedge fund Paulson & Co. who made billions betting on a drop in the value of subprime loans last year, estimated banks are only about a third of the way through $1.3 trillion in writedowns and losses.

Zurich-based UBS AG, Switzerland's biggest bank, took more than $38 billion in writedowns, more than any other European bank. Citigroup Inc. Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden yesterday forecast ``substantial additional'' writedowns at the New York- based bank this quarter.

Worst Since Depression

``It's all bad news on the horizon,'' said Maria Boyazny, who oversees a $3 billion fund that invests in other hedge funds for Siguler Guff & Co. in New York. ``This correction is going to be a long one. It's a recipe for disaster for credit markets.''

Edward Altman, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business who has tracked defaulted debt for nearly 40 years, said an impending wave of defaults could be the worst on record in the U.S., at 16 percent of corporate debt.

``It may be the worst recession since the Great Depression, that's not impossible,'' said Altman, who estimates default rates on U.S. corporate debt have tripled so far this year from record lows last year. ``There's a lot of negatives out there.''

The U.S. recession will be deeper and longer than the previous one because of the drop in home values, said Max Holmes, founder of Plainfield Asset Management, a $4.8 billion hedge fund in Greenwich, Connecticut. He bought distressed assets in the previous three U.S. recessions and lived in Houston during the region's real-estate bust in the 1980s.

``This is a major, major event, it's going to take a while to resolve itself,'' said Holmes, who reckons the U.S. slipped into recession in December. ``In the last recession the banking industry was healthy, this time it's very, very sick.''

$600 Billion

Even after banks have written off almost $400 billion in debt from the collapse of the U.S. subprime market, more markdowns probably are in store, the fund managers said.

``We have a lot more wood to chop,'' said Alberto Musalem Borrero, head of research for Tudor Investment Corp., the $18 billion hedge fund manager founded by Paul Tudor Jones. ``I wouldn't be surprised to see another $600 billion in losses.''

Bear Stearns Cos., which was listed as the host for a John Paulson address in early versions of the Monaco conference's program, was replaced by JPMorgan Chase & Co., which bought the fifth-largest Wall Street securities firm in a rescue facilitated by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

After the hedge fund industry had its worst start in nearly two decades, some managers said they are eager to load up on discounted debt and bonds. Altman reckons more than 200 funds have raised as much as $400 billion for distressed investing in the U.S., with a similar amount raised outside of the U.S.

``There's a Chinese proverb, where there's disaster there's an opportunity,'' said Boyazny of Siguler Guff.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tom Cahill in Monaco through London at [e-mail].

Last Updated: June 20, 2008 09:23 EDT