Skv. Seðlabankanum var staða þjóðarbúsins gagnvart útlöndum neikvæð um 2300 milljarða í septemberlok sl.

Síðan þá hafa bankakerfið og þjóðarbúið rúllað opinberlega á hausinn og get ég varla ímyndað mér að staðan hafi skánað við það. Það var furðulegt að hlusta á þennan Tryggva í kastljósi ruslveitu ríkisins spinna einhver ævintýri um stöðuna en hann hefur misserum saman verið öruggur gagnvísir og ekki síst þegar hann sauð saman delluskýrslu með Mishkin, einhverjum geðbiluðum frjálshyggjupostula sem er alveg í stíl við frjálshyggjuklikkhausana sem hafa sett hér allt á hausinn á skipulegan hátt. Það hefur verið helv. aumt að horfa upp á ruslveitu ríkisins tefla aumingjum fram til að eyða umræðu síðustu misserin og gera enn.

sedlabanki.is síðan hagtölur, erlend staða þjóðarbúsins osfrv.

Gjaldþrot fyrrv. sovétblokkarinnar, Bretlands, Spánar, Bandaríkjanna (líkleg röð) leiðir áreiðanlega til stórstríðs

Fyrrv. sovétlýðveldi í Austur Evrópui eru öll algjörlega fallít fyrir löngu og Rússland rambar einnig á barmi gjaldþrots. Bretland og Bandaríkin eru líka alveg gjaldþrota og þegar það rúllar fara einnig fljótt Spánn, Ítalía og önnur basketkeis.

Sjá nánar eftirfarandi grein úr Telegraph

Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown

The unfolding debt drama in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU states of Eastern Europe has reached acute danger point.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 2:05AM GMT 15 Feb 2009
Comments 90 | Comment on this article
If mishandled by the world policy establishment, this debacle is big enough to shatter the fragile banking systems of Western Europe and set off round two of our financial Götterdämmerung.
Austria's finance minister Josef Pröll made frantic efforts last week to put together a €150bn rescue for the ex-Soviet bloc. Well he might. His banks have lent €230bn to the region, equal to 70pc of Austria's GDP.
"A failure rate of 10pc would lead to the collapse of the Austrian financial sector," reported Der Standard in Vienna. Unfortunately, that is about to happen.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says bad debts will top 10pc and may reach 20pc. The Vienna press said Bank Austria and its Italian owner Unicredit face a "monetary Stalingrad" in the East.
Mr Pröll tried to drum up support for his rescue package from EU finance ministers in Brussels last week. The idea was scotched by Germany's Peer Steinbrück. Not our problem, he said. We'll see about that.
Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay – or roll over – $400bn this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut.
Not even Russia can easily cover the $500bn dollar debts of its oligarchs while oil remains near $33 a barrel. The budget is based on Urals crude at $95. Russia has bled 36pc of its foreign reserves since August defending the rouble.
"This is the largest run on a currency in history," said Mr Jen.
In Poland, 60pc of mortgages are in Swiss francs. The zloty has just halved against the franc. Hungary, the Balkans, the Baltics, and Ukraine are all suffering variants of this story. As an act of collective folly – by lenders and borrowers – it matches America's sub-prime debacle. There is a crucial difference, however. European banks are on the hook for both. US banks are not.
Almost all East bloc debts are owed to West Europe, especially Austrian, Swedish, Greek, Italian, and Belgian banks. En plus, Europeans account for an astonishing 74pc of the entire $4.9 trillion portfolio of loans to emerging markets.
They are five times more exposed to this latest bust than American or Japanese banks, and they are 50pc more leveraged (IMF data).
Spain is up to its neck in Latin America, which has belatedly joined the slump (Mexico's car output fell 51pc in January, and Brazil lost 650,000 jobs in one month). Britain and Switzerland are up to their necks in Asia.
Whether it takes months, or just weeks, the world is going to discover that Europe's financial system is sunk, and that there is no EU Federal Reserve yet ready to act as a lender of last resort or to flood the markets with emergency stimulus.
Under a "Taylor Rule" analysis, the European Central Bank already needs to cut rates to zero and then purchase bonds and Pfandbriefe on a huge scale. It is constrained by geopolitics – a German-Dutch veto – and the Maastricht Treaty.
But I digress. It is East Europe that is blowing up right now. Erik Berglof, EBRD's chief economist, told me the region may need €400bn in help to cover loans and prop up the credit system.
Europe's governments are making matters worse. Some are pressuring their banks to pull back, undercutting subsidiaries in East Europe. Athens has ordered Greek banks to pull out of the Balkans.
The sums needed are beyond the limits of the IMF, which has already bailed out Hungary, Ukraine, Latvia, Belarus, Iceland, and Pakistan – and Turkey next – and is fast exhausting its own $200bn (€155bn) reserve. We are nearing the point where the IMF may have to print money for the world, using arcane powers to issue Special Drawing Rights.
Its $16bn rescue of Ukraine has unravelled. The country – facing a 12pc contraction in GDP after the collapse of steel prices – is hurtling towards default, leaving Unicredit, Raffeisen and ING in the lurch. Pakistan wants another $7.6bn. Latvia's central bank governor has declared his economy "clinically dead" after it shrank 10.5pc in the fourth quarter. Protesters have smashed the treasury and stormed parliament.
"This is much worse than the East Asia crisis in the 1990s," said Lars Christensen, at Danske Bank.
"There are accidents waiting to happen across the region, but the EU institutions don't have any framework for dealing with this. The day they decide not to save one of these one countries will be the trigger for a massive crisis with contagion spreading into the EU."
Europe is already in deeper trouble than the ECB or EU leaders ever expected. Germany contracted at an annual rate of 8.4pc in the fourth quarter.
If Deutsche Bank is correct, the economy will have shrunk by nearly 9pc before the end of this year. This is the sort of level that stokes popular revolt.
The implications are obvious. Berlin is not going to rescue Ireland, Spain, Greece and Portugal as the collapse of their credit bubbles leads to rising defaults, or rescue Italy by accepting plans for EU "union bonds" should the debt markets take fright at the rocketing trajectory of Italy's public debt (hitting 112pc of GDP next year, just revised up from 101pc – big change), or rescue Austria from its Habsburg adventurism.
So we watch and wait as the lethal brush fires move closer.
If one spark jumps across the eurozone line, we will have global systemic crisis within days. Are the firemen ready?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4623525/Failure-to-save-East-Europe-will-lead-to-worldwide-meltdown.html

Príma húsnæði við Hlemm greinilega rangnýtt. Hendið út hluta setuliðs löggunnar og leigið plássið sem losnar til arðbærrar starfsemi

Vísir, 16. feb. 2009 14:57

Vændiskonur umkringja lögreglustöðina

Í auga stormsins: Sitthvorumegin við lögreglustöðina stunda konur vændi.

Valur Grettisson skrifar:

Þrjár vændiskonur halda til í íbúð við Rauðaárstíg í miðborg Reykjavíkur en Stöð 2 sagði frá því í síðustu viku að annað vændishús væri hinu megin við lögreglustöðina, það er að segja við Hverfisgötu 105.

Fréttamaður vísis kom sér í samband við hina brasilísku Samönthu sem kom hingað til lands frá Spáni. Hún sagðist halda til í íbúð við Rauðarárstíg þar sem hún iðkar sína kúnst. Þegar hún var spurð hvort hún tengdist Catalinu Ncogo, sem var grunuð um að reka vændishúsið við Hverfisgötu, sagðist Samantha ekki kannast við hana. Því er um tvö aðskilin vændishús að ræða.

Samantha auglýsti þjónustu sína á vefnum einkamál.is en auglýsingin var fjarlægð stuttu eftir að hún kom inn. Það sama átti við vinkonur hennar. Þegar rætt var við Samönthu kom í ljós að klukkutíma þjónusta með henni kostar tuttugu þúsund krónur.

Samkvæmt heimildum Vísis þá gerir Samantha út sína kynlífsþjónustu við Rauðarárstíg 5.

visir.is

Skuldbindingar bandar. ríkisins meiri en verg heimsframleiðsla og 4X verg þjóðarframl. BNA

Federal obligations exceed world GDP
Does $65.5 trillion terrify anyone yet?
Posted: February 13, 2009
11:35 pm Eastern

By Jerome R. Corsi
© 2009 WorldNetDaily

 

As the Obama administration pushes through Congress its $800 billion deficit-spending economic stimulus plan, the American public is largely unaware that the true deficit of the federal government already is measured in trillions of dollars, and in fact its $65.5 trillion in total obligations exceeds the gross domestic product of the world.

The total U.S. obligations, including Social Security and Medicare benefits to be paid in the future, effectively have placed the U.S. government in bankruptcy, even before new continuing social welfare obligation embedded in the massive spending plan are taken into account.

The real 2008 federal budget deficit was $5.1 trillion, not the $455 billion previously reported by the Congressional Budget Office, according to the "2008 Financial Report of the United States Government" as released by the U.S. Department of Treasury.

The difference between the $455 billion "official" budget deficit numbers and the $5.1 trillion budget deficit cited by "2008 Financial Report of the United States Government" is that the official budget deficit is calculated on a cash basis, where all tax receipts, including Social Security tax receipts, are used to pay government liabilities as they occur.

 

But the numbers in the 2008 report are calculated on a GAAP basis ("Generally Accepted Accounting Practices") that include year-for-year changes in the net present value of unfunded liabilities in social insurance programs such as Social Security and Medicare.

Under cash accounting, the government makes no provision for future Social Security and Medicare benefits in the year in which those benefits accrue.

"As bad as 2008 was, the $455 billion budget deficit on a cash basis and the $5.1 trillion federal budget deficit on a GAAP accounting basis does not reflect any significant money [from] the financial bailout or Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, which was approved after the close of the fiscal year," economist John Williams, who publishes the Internet website Shadow Government Statistics, told WND.

Find out what's behind the chaos at the White House, in the No. 1 best-seller "Obama Nation"

"The Congressional Budget Office estimated the fiscal year 2009 budget deficit as being $1.2 trillion on a cash basis and that was before taking into consideration the full costs of the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, before the cost of the Obama nearly $800 billion economic stimulus plan, or the cost of the second $350 billion in TARP funds, as well as all current bailouts being contemplated by the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve," he said.

"The federal government's deficit is hemorrhaging at a pace which threatens the viability of the financial system," Williams added. "The popularly reported 2009 [deficit] will clearly exceed $2 trillion on a cash basis and that full amount has to be funded by Treasury borrowing.

"It's not likely this will happen without the Federal Reserve acting as lender of last resort for the Treasury by buying Treasury debt and monetizing the debt," he said.

"Monetizing the debt" is a term used to signify that the Federal Reserve will be required simply to print cash to meet the Treasury debt obligations, acting in this capacity only because the Treasury cannot sell the huge of amount debt elsewhere.

The Treasury has been largely dependent upon foreign buyers, principally China and Japan and other major holders of U.S. dollar foreign exchange reserves, including OPEC buyers purchasing U.S. debt through London.

"The appetite of foreign buyers to purchase continued trillions of U.S. debt has become more questionable as the world has witnessed the rapid deterioration of the U.S. fiscal condition in the current financial crisis," Williams noted.

"Truthfully," Williams pointed out, "there is no Social Security 'lock-box.' There are no funds held in reserve today for Social Security and Medicare obligations that are earned each year. It's only a matter of time until the public realizes that the government is truly bankrupt and no taxes are being held in reserve to pay in the future the Social Security and Medicare benefits taxpayers are earning today."

Calculations from the "2008 Financial Report of the United States Government" also show that the GAAP negative net worth of the federal government has increased to $59.3 trillion while the total federal obligations under GAAP accounting now total $65.5 trillion.

The $65.5 trillion total federal obligations under GAAP accounting not only now exceed four times the U.S. gross domestic product, or GDP, the $65.5 trillion deficit exceeds total world GDP.

"In the seven years of GAAP reporting, we have seen an annual average deficit in excess of $4 trillion, which could not be possibly covered by any form of taxation," Williams argued.

"Shy of the government severely slashing social welfare programs, federal deficits of this magnitude are beyond any hope of containment, government or otherwise," he said.

"Put simply, there is no way the government can possibly pay for the level of social welfare benefits the federal government has promised unless the government simply prints cash and debases the currency, which the government will increasingly be doing this year," Williams said, explaining in more detail why he feels the government is now in the process of monetizing the federal debt.

"Social Security and Medicare must be shown as liabilities on the federal balance sheet in the year they accrue according to GAAP accounting," Williams argues. "To do otherwise is irresponsible, nothing more than an attempt to hide the painful truth from the American public. The public has a right to know just how bad off the federal government budget deficit situation really is, especially since the situation is rapidly spinning out of control.

"The federal government is bankrupt," Williams told WND. "In a post-Enron world, if the federal government were a corporation such as General Motors, the president and senior Treasury officers would be in federal penitentiary."

If you would like to sound off on this issue, participate in today's WND Poll.

 

 

 

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Örvæntingarfull barátta gegn verðhjöðnun um allan heim

Nema í einstaka ávaxtalýðveldi þar sem valdastofnanir þjóðfélgsins hafa smám saman fyllst af baneitruðum pólitískum úrgangi. Það eru svo til allir í örvæntingu að hraða sér niður í núll pósent vexti nema í einstaka gjörspilltu járnbrautarslysi þar sem löngu langútriðnar hórur heimta enn borgun þótt enginn vilji nota þær.  Herskarar frjálshyggju- og markaðsfræðinga án menntunar úr kranagerviháskólum sem einhverjir vitleysingar úrskurðuðu "á háskólastigi" hafa sett þetta á hausinn undir stjórn lýðræðislegra hóra í boði auglýsingaruslpósts og peninga. Hórur hafa prómóterað aðrar hórur en það er ekki mikill markaður fyrir hórur sem hafa verið 20 ár í bransanum og sumar eru jafnvel orðnar löngu fullnýttar eftir fimm ár eða minna en eru samt að glenna sig í sjónvarpinu og átta sig ekki á því að þær eru í besta falli tragíkómískt skemmtiatriði.

Þegar þér sjáið seljendur ruslvarnings sem þér hvorki þurfið né hafið efni á bjóða 98% afslátt þá er líklega stutt í efnahagsbotninn

Ég fer oft um Laugaveginn og þetta er á leiðinni. Þegar ég get hent fötunum sem ég er í jafnóðum og endurnýjað þau fyrir hundraðkall, og það er stutt í það, eða kannski jafnvel pikkað úr einhverjum haugum sem menn hafa ekki efni á að koma í endurvinnslu þá veit ég að offramleiðslubotninum er náð. Öll verð verða núna að hrynja eigi að vera kaupendur. Ég gæti jafnvel keypt húseign ef verðið félli um 80 prósent. Þegar allt hefur hrúgast á kaupendahliðina árum saman og allt er orðið súperyfrirkeypt þá tekur skiljanlega við tími seljenda og verðið hrynur.

Fjármálaeftirlitið þagði málin í hel þangað til þjóðarbúið rúllaði á hausinn. Nú á það að reyna að þegja rússnesku mafíuna út af borðinu

Ég get satt að segja ekki ímyndað mér að það endi vel, frekar en fyrri daginn. Annars er geðveikislegur fíflagangur og vitleysisleg framkoma í erlendum fjölmiðlum sem innlendum komin á það stig að nauðsynlegt virðist að setja allt heila kerfið í allsherjar lyfjapróf og láta síðan hendur standa fram úr ermum við að reka menn og/eða koma þeim í viðeigandi vistun. Almenningur á ákveðin grunnréttindi hvað öryggishagsmuni hans snertir og hlýtur að eiga kröfu um að einhverjir ruglustrumpar á óljósum lyfjum og með alvarlega ruglað toppstykki í kerfinu verði teknir úr umferð áður en þeir valda enn frekari skaða.

Hann heitir Haarde

Wall Street: Earnings Rout Ahead - Look Out Below!

HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS -- THE RIDE'S ABOUT TO GET really rough. Would you believe negative $7.56-a-share earnings on the Standard & Poor's 500 for fourth-quarter '08 earnings?

William Waitzman

That's according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at Standard & Poor's. "There has never been an as-reported index level in the red," says Silverblatt. In the devastating fourth quarter, "companies started throwing in the kitchen sink, then moved to the refrigerator, and are in the dining room now," Silverblatt quips.

Unfortunately, with about 77% of companies in the index having already issued their fourth-quarter financial statements, the level of as-reported earnings, which include charges, now exceeds on the downside the level of operating earnings, $6.58 a share, on the upside.

That is no surprise to Charlie Minter and Marty Weiner, portfolio managers at Comstock Partners, who put up impressive 55% returns for 2008. They say that while S&P just lowered operating-earnings estimates to $58 from $66 for '08, and to $69 from $82 for '09 -- and as-reported earnings estimates to $35 from $45 for '08 -- strategists haven't adjusted their S&P targets to the new figures.

Minter and Weiner say strategists' assertions that the market is undervalued are overblown, both because they are based on old operating-earnings estimates, and because those earnings don't reflect the true picture. The Comstock managers use a smoothed estimate of $64 for '09 earnings, and a multiple of 10, the average trough multiple over the past 75 years, to get a forward estimate of 640 on the S&P -- 24% below its current level.

Edited by ROBIN GOLDWYN BLUMENTHAL  | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

http://online.barrons.com/article/preview.html

UBS: Kanadískir bankar einna minnst fallít af vestrænum bönkum

 Loan-to-deposit ratio of  96% in the U.K. = allsherjar gjaldþrot breska bankakerfisins og þar með breska þjóðarbúsins er óhjákvæmilegt, aðeins spurning um tíma.

Less risk in Canadian banks: UBS

Posted: February 11, 2009, 11:35 AM by Jonathan Ratner

Economy, Financial services, banks, capital reserves

Bay Street is likely to suffer less than Wall Street as global economic conditions worsen and international banks continue to grapple with bad loans and toxic assets, according to UBS. Researchers at the Swiss bank “expect Canadian banks to continue to outperform their global peers given superior asset quality, capital, liquidity, and return on equity.”

While shares in U.S. and Canadian banks both hit historical lows in January, UBS points out that Bay Street banks have suffered a 38% fall while Wall Street bank stocks have fallen 66%.

Researchers at the investment bank say they “remain negative on the outlook for global banks due to a weaker economy,” but see less risk lurking in the books of Canadian banks.

“Exposure to high risk toxic assets is fundamentally lower in Canada,” according to the UBS team.

The researchers also point to several other key metrics that indicate a healthier banking system, including more stringent underwriting standards for home loans. The bank points out that Canadian banks are less leveraged than international peers, with a “a low loan-to-deposit ratio of 78% versus 83% in the U.S., 96% in the U.K.”.

In particular, the bank argues investors should not use the same conservative metrics to evaluate the riskiness of Canadian banks that are in vogue for measuring U.S. banks. U.S. investors have been increasingly ignoring measures of banks’ capital reserves that are based on elaborate systems of risk-weighting arrived at by executives and regulators.

Instead, they have been stripping balance sheets down to so-called tangible common equity, because “all assets have become more risky in this environment”, making “risk weightings less reliable, according to UBS.

Using this risk-averse metric, Canadian banks look significantly less well capitalised. But UBS argues this is misleading. It points to a number of conditions in Canada that, including strong earnings flows.

“We think that earnings are the most important cushion for credit losses,” the researchers say, adding: “therefore their implicit pro forma capital levels are higher than their US peers regardless of what number is used.”

Eoin Callan